SW FL Real Estate

Just as I thought.....

Forthe Mo. of June - on the mls - 3 areas:

Bonita-Estero/Estero/Naples (N. of Pine Ridge Rd.)

Bonita-Estero Total
'08=158  '07=111  '06=85
Bonita-Estero Single Family
'08=75   '07=50  '06=41
Estero Total
'08=56   '07=29  '06=29
Estero Single family
'08=28   '07=15  '06=13
Naples (N. of Pine Ridge)Total
'08=158  '07=117 '06=113
Single Family
'08=73   '07=56  '06=43

This proves we have a 50% increase in transaction activity in one of the historically slowest months of this market.  Instead of slowing down - the activity level is substantially increased.

Here is the most amazing part:

Avg. sale price (all sales combined irregardless of type) for each of last 3 yrs. (08/07/06)

Estero: $483k/$379k/$417k
Bonita: $508k/$558k/$588k
Naples: $852k/$790k/$1.03k

As I have indicated previously in this blog...

I am detecting a change in the air.....  properties are starting to move.... as the entire nation sinks deeper into this housing depression and economic depression - for that matter.

Here are the recent stats to support my point.  I will compare the entire month of June for the two prior years against the 1st 27 days of June - to date:

	Total '06	Total '07	Total '08
Bonita-Estero	111	85	149
Bonita-Estero S.F.	50	41	72
Estero Only	29	29	54
Estero S.F.	15	13	27

Are you seeing what I am seeing?  A 50% increase?

That's what I thought.   What do you think?

As I take a glance at the sales activity on the mls - it doesn't coincide with the consensus opinion of the dead market.  For example - in the past 7 days:

Bonita Estero has 79 property sales go pending.  Of that number 29 are single family and 59 are multiple family.  Of the single family total, only 2 were priced above $1M. - 4 were priced between $500k and $1M - the rest were below $500k.

Naples has 159 property sales go pending.  Of that number 115 are single family and 44 multiple family.  Of the single family total, only 15 were priced above $1M. - 8 were between $500k and $1M - the rest were below $500k.

What's going on?  This is the most "dead" time of the year - supposedly.  From June 1 to Sept. 30 is historically the slowest time of the year in the SW FL market.

As a point of reference, one year ago Bonita-Estero had only 37 total sales go pending for the entire month of June.  Two years ago that number was 28.  The above detailed numbers are for one week.  Bonita - Estero had more single family homes go pending last week than the total for the entire month of June for the past two years.

Naples numbers are very similar.  In the entire month of June, one year ago we had only 135 and two years ago that number was at 165.

My opinion:  Wise buyers are taking advantage of the bottom of this market. Will we see continuing activity this summer?  I think so.

What do you think?

All we hear is that everything is getting worse and it is.

And, at the same time - home sales are picking up and up and prices are going down and...  for example:

• Naples - Bonita - Estero has 268 sales pending in the 1st 10 days of June.
• The same area and time period has 240 closed sales.  Of this figure - 109 are single family homes.
• Of the above total sold - all but 80 were under $500,000.

If you are one of the people looking to take advantage of these "short sales" - you need to have another drink of patience.  People are running 3-6 months before getting offers accepted or rejected or renegotiated by the lender for higher prices.....

So clear up the confusion.....  smart buyers are buying... prices are dropping (on an individual basis).  Certain zip codes have and will continue to drop further.  Obviously, the more attractive zip codes are holding prices much better.  And bank owned / short sales take forever and may or may not ever come to fruition.

What do you think?

about the bottom of the market - see last blog -

1. Even though we see a 30% jump in actual sales transactions in April over 1 yr. ago..
2. and even though pending sales are up substantially.... we keep seeing the market slaughtered with news of: 
3. Lee Co. courthouse reports a back log of 15,000 foreclosures!  The system is tied up with foreclosures.  Thinking 1,500 per mo. had become the norm.  Evidently that's just all that can get processed.
4. Even though we have lost 35% from the avg. price of a s.f. home -
5. We are still inundated with news items that you don't even think about coming - like all the massive lay offs of related industries 
6. And, of course, public builders news of posting losses fuel the flames

I am not sure the Lake "O" fires on the water are a microcosm of the SW FL economy.  But, I am sure there are deals to be had by the buyer.  The seller is bleeding out and the smart buyer is making great deals.  Activity is up and the market prices are down....