SW FL Real Estate

wrong but is very skewed.
The published information in the "Lee Crier" or as some call it, the News-Press headline said "home prices plummet".  It went on to say that prices had fallen 17% in the month of June, alone.  Give me break.
Have prices fallen? Yes.  Have they fallen anywhere near that amount? No.
What is the driving force?  It is the foreclosure market and bank owned properties.
In this area (Collier and Lee counties), From Naples to Ft Myers, June had record foreclosure numbers in both counties.  Lee county led the state with 2,500.  And, their real leading indicator was that one in 71 homes were in foreclosure during the year of '08.
However, that is primarily from two locations:    1) Cape Coral and 2) Lehigh Acres.  These two areas are a disaster, no doubt.

In S. Lee county (Bonita Springs and Estero), that is absolutely not the case and you need to know that.  I have looked up the mls data for the last 4 yrs in these two areas.

July numbers: Estero
# of properties gone pending in '07 -'04: 21,21,36,45 - so far this July:28

July numbers: Bonita Springs - Estero Combined # of properties gone pending in '07 - 04: 78,78,208,213 - so far this July:112
By months end that will be a substantial increase over the past two years.
Avg. price sold in Estero in '07-04: $298,$391,$385,$368 - July #'s are not in.
However, June was $433 and May was $436
Bonita - Estero  combined:
Avg price sold in Bonita - Estero in '07-04: $552,$449,$441,$315 - July #'s are not in.
However, June was $495 and May was $479
Summary: Naples, Bonita, Estero are not showing the results published by the media.  These media published results are primarily relative to certain Ft.Myers as well as N. Ft. Myers.
We can easily see sales numbers are up substantially and prices are finding the markets bottom.  The bottom in the "primo" areas will not drop much more.  We see buyer activity and we see a lot from Europe and Canada, due to the weak dollar.
We also see continuing activity in the $1.5M  and greater market.  These properties continue to move and continue to hold prices because the buyer knows 4-5 yrs. from now, the current market won't be an issue.

What could change my little prognostication?  For one thing, a complete bank/lending disaster.  I don't necessarily think that will occur or I would be buffering my thoughts more.
Just wanted you to know....

Just as I thought.....

Forthe Mo. of June - on the mls - 3 areas:

Bonita-Estero/Estero/Naples (N. of Pine Ridge Rd.)

Bonita-Estero Total
'08=158  '07=111  '06=85
Bonita-Estero Single Family
'08=75   '07=50  '06=41
Estero Total
'08=56   '07=29  '06=29
Estero Single family
'08=28   '07=15  '06=13
Naples (N. of Pine Ridge)Total
'08=158  '07=117 '06=113
Single Family
'08=73   '07=56  '06=43

This proves we have a 50% increase in transaction activity in one of the historically slowest months of this market.  Instead of slowing down - the activity level is substantially increased.

Here is the most amazing part:

Avg. sale price (all sales combined irregardless of type) for each of last 3 yrs. (08/07/06)

Estero: $483k/$379k/$417k
Bonita: $508k/$558k/$588k
Naples: $852k/$790k/$1.03k