SW FL Real Estate

Today's headlines:

1. Foreclosures hit new high and;
2. permits issued in August equal to 1981!

Actually, the permit numbers are good news - in a way.  Something like 63 permits issued in Lee county for the month of August.  That tells me the damn builders have finally ground to a halt.  That is good for the market since other facts exists - like 15,000 existing properties currently for sale in Lee county alone (as always - Collier doesn't make that info. available).

The problem is the foreclosures.  The new high of over 1,200 in August in Lee county alone (after a new high of just over 1,000 in July) will continue to suppress the market in future months.  Why?  Because the lenders ultimately will have these properties on the market at below current average costs.  As they are sold - they not only suppress the market - they are used as "comps" when appraisals are being completed for future sales.

It is September - height of hurricane season.  We have been fortunate so far.  Let's hope for a continued quiet season. 

Are we seeing anything else going on in the marketplace in Lee and Collier? Let me know.....

This is just a pleasant reminder of understanding the term "median price".

All the home and housing statistics all use the term median price.  This is probably the dumbest measure there is.  why you ask?  Because it doesn't exist!  What is it?  Median - as used in the housing industry - works like this:

Based on all sales prices - median is the number - where half the sales prices fall below and half the sales prices are above - that number.  That's why I contend it is a irrelevant number because it doesn't exist.  Under this same scenario - it would be like saying "if I were to stand with one foot in a bucket of ice water and one foot on a bed of hot coals - at the median point point (half way between each foot) I would be totally comfortable."  What kind of crap is that?  That is median price.  That's what.

Just thought you should know.  Do you have a dramatically different opinion?

Has the local real estate market bottomed out? Not really - but

Recently released statistics show prices and sales levels in August were higher than July, but lower than they were a year ago.

Sales in Lee county were down 25% compared to August 2006, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. In July, the median price was up 2% and the number of sales were also up 22% from July.

Figures for Collier County – as always – (this is just a reminder about how Collier co. acts) - weren’t available because the Naples Area Board of Realtors does not allow the state association to publish the board’s statistics.

In my opinion – we haven’t bottomed out yet but this is a positive step toward finding the bottom.

Here is an economist view and comments: “Another month of falling sales and rising inventories tells us the housing market is still a basket case,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. “It is going to take a long time to work off that imbalance and undoubtedly prices will have to fall a whole lot further.”

What's your opinion?

When the local paper - the SW FL crier and whiner - publishes - ever so gleefully - that SW FL is among the worst real estate markets in the country.

We knew that. They publish the article thru one of their "guru" columns that specializes in commercial real estate.  I have a flash for him.  Commercial real estate in this area is looking down the gun barrel of the worst market conditions ever seen - ever - like - since before SW FL was nothing but a swamp  (2 weeks ago)!

Nothing is changing, really.  The $1M plus homes market is still moving at a greater percentage than the other price ranges.  We still have an over supply on the market.  We keep getting more and more listings on the market.  Foreclosures continue to rise to new all time records every month.  It would appear that we have about a 17% across the board drop in prices.

And, what's new?  Nothing really..... except we get closer to the bottom every day.

I have been straight with you for the past year or more about the reality of the economics in this region.  Well, I think it is summed up better in an article published in the Ft. Myers News-Press today.  An economics professor had an MBA class study this all summer.  Their findings are fairly straight forward and real and obvious.

The article can be read in its entirety online by clicking this link.  Then, come back and tell me your thoughts - opinions.

Let's take a quick look at the month just ending.  Here are the August '07 mls numbers comparison - by year.  These numbers are taken from the Sunshine mls data which means these numbers are only applicable to transactions where a realtor was involved.

We have an actual increase in sales numbers (compared to last year) in Bonita - Estero!  That's the first time you have seen that in print in over 2 years!  Bonita Estero pending sales shows a 12% increase over Aug. '06 and sold/closed shows a 25% increase compared to August '06.  Why?  What are we seeing?

Naples comparison to one year ago is virtually even.  We see pending down 5%.  That can't be good because next months closed sales can't hardly increase with pending sales dropping.  And, closed sales were just even with a year ago.  These transaction numbers are about equal to half of the 2003 activity levels.

 Bonita Springs - Estero

Pending - Aug         Sold - Aug           (Estero) pending

'07 -  95                     '07 -  102               (35)

'06 – 82                      '06 -  76                (22)

'05 – 201                    '05 - 205                (46)

'04 – 209                    '04 - 205                (41)

'03 - 163                    '03 - 225                 (29)

Naples  W. of I-75  N of Davis Blvd.

'07 - 187                     '07 - 190

'06 - 202                     '06 - 188

'05 - 485                     '05 - 412

'04 - 385                     '04 - 421

'03 - 382                     '03 - 372