SW FL Real Estate

I see some positive signs that our market may be stabilizing or "bottoming out". 

There are certainly still depressing stats out there like:

1. 3 yr. inventory overall….. of resale properties available….
2. 25k total resale properties available in Lee Co……
3. Lot price continue to fall…..

But – here are some positives:

1. Developers are doing whatever it takes to move existing inventory units.  These are primarily what buyers have walked away from at closing.  There are steep discounts on some units.  Certain properties have discounted far below the actual cost of construction.  This is the time to buy from the developer.
2. There are new construction individual properties for sale that have been built for investors.  These units are for sale at 20% or more below the actual construction cost.   This is the time to buy.
3. There are obviously good buys in the resale market too.  There are certain type properties in certain communities that have driven the prices down on each other to a level that is actually substantially below the construction or replacement cost.  That is a good buy.  Now is the time to buy.  For example, I know where to buy… brand new…. 2+2+den condo…. for a lot less than $200,000.  The same unit sold for $235- $250,000. just one short year ago.
4. Construction costs are not increasing further than they did 1.5 yrs. ago.  I don’t think they will in the foreseeable future.  That is, without another catastrophic occurrence.

Don’t forget – closing costs.  These costs are substantial in SW FL.  A portion of these costs that are negotiable in the contract for sale/purchase.  On average any buyer can use 1.5% of the purchase price as a standard rule of thumb for these costs.  That is a lot of money.  We need to always discuss this. http://www.swfhomesales.com/ClosingCosts

Don’t forget: Buyers tend to refuse to buy when property is dropping in price.  Buyers want to buy when prices are increasing.  The time to buy is on the down side.  People are inherently afraid they will “miss the bottom”.  You will irregardless of what action you take.  In real estate, any time you think you see the bottom – you have already missed it.  In a market like this one, buying at this stage of the market, you will be fine at any time in the next 2-5 years. 

As I try to evaluate......The recent reports - numbers - hype....... 

inaccuracies need to have a few clarifications:

Wall(nut) St. thought the 16% jump in new home sales reported for April was a good thing.  Really?  How do think that happened and at what cost?  At least here it happened with:

• desperate developers (that must report back to wall(nut) st.) selling inventories at a loss,
• generating sales with incredible incentives that will generate future losses as those properties complete and close throughout the rest of the year and
• by selling units where previous investors walked away from the closing table.  
• This was the last thing the resale market needed too. 
• This finished off the surge of resale transactions. 
• Sales and prices of existing homes dropped again, nationally.  And,
• unsold inventories hit a 15 year high. 

The SW FL market has done the same things only worse.

• The foreclosure market and news will be ugly for at least the rest of this fiscal year.  This market is up about 200% locally, unfortunately.  Primarily, the people facing foreclosure are the buyers in '05 - some '04 - that took shaky loan plans because the market run would cure all ills.  These people are in horrific pain. 
• The other most painful area are the people that bought - as investors - at the end of the appreciation surge.  Unfortunately, it is always like a pyramid with real estate market cycles.  Those getting in at the bottom of a market cycle have the most broad base and gain the most.  Those getting in at the top of the market cycle are sitting on the point of the pyramid and have the least chance to make anything or get out. These people are holding properties that are currently worth about 25% less than they paid for them.  These people have two options: take an enormous loss on the property or hold it with no return and no chance at any return for a large number of years - maybe forever. 

The other side of the coin

• The buyer that can take advantage of all this gloom.
• The buyer of property in xs of $1M seems to be going forward to a much greater degree.  Why?  They are not as concerned with the immediate market - they know they are getting a good buy - and they know they will be fine at any point from 2-10 yrs. from now.
• There are transactions taking place and they are solid transactions with people that will show sizable profits on these transactions.

IF you don't absolutely have to sell right now - don't

IF you can wait until a year from now to sell - do

IF you must sell now - price the property in the lower 10% of comparable properties - offer incentives - make it stand out from the crowd.... take the hit.

IF you can buy now - do

The coming storm season will likely have a lot to do with how the market reacts and what the market is like six months from now.

Summary:

1. The people that bought in 1999 thru 2003 are still in good shape - even if they are forced to sell. 
2. We are back down to '04 pricing so, only those of us that bought in past 3 yrs. are bleeding.
3. The other two issues of insurance and property taxes will be dealt with in a separate blog......

Thanks for your time - this time - til next time....

As we look toward the buyer side of this market and as I continue to pound away at the opportunities for buyers here.... there are a number of incredible incentives being offered by builders/developers for the summer months.  I should talk about them as well as all the "down side" seller - processes.  Contact me to discuss details of these incentive programs currently available or;

See sample details of these incentives on my web site

Either way - there are numerous and varied programs in the market place today.

When you read the news - just today - you find items like:

• Lennar is offering fully loaded - single family homes in their Estero development community of Bella Terra for a price of $295,000.
• Toll Brothers profits down 79% from the same period last year.  And, guess what - last year sucked!
• Gov. signs budget that will ultimately increase local property taxes.
• 49,000 acres burned along alligator alley.
• Lake O shoreline has receeded by 1.5 miles due to the severity of current drought conditions.

This type of info. makes it difficult to put a positive spin on things (except the Lennar pricing  - if you are a buyer in this market).  I have been putting an honest "spin" on it for the past year.  Check my notes from yesterday that basically said - "the next 3 months are the best time to be a buyer in this market".  This is the toughest time for seller pricing.  And, it will be improving by Thanksgiving.  I am not saying price increases but activity levels will increase due to passing the bottom of this market cycle.

Back to the issue.  Currently, it is very difficult to be involved in the real estate business in this area.  It wasn't too difficult for the realtor and the seller that had a listing go pending for $6.2M - just yesterday.   But for the other 9,000 realtors and 27,000 sellers in SW FL, it was another difficult day.

Buyers days are great right now - contact me today

Here is the quote from the national press release dated 5/24/07,

“Sales of new homes surged in April by the biggest amount (16%) in 14 years, but the median price of a new home dropped (11%) by the largest amount on record. The mixed signals left no clear picture of whether the worst of the housing slump is over or not.”

The SW FL market did not have that much of an increase in April although - as discussed here previously - we did have an end of season "surge".

Here are the results for the first 24 days of May and comparing them to the entire month for prior years:

Naples (W. of I-75)

The month of May appears to be on target to “track” with the May ’06 results.  That would indicate – to me –

• a dramatic improvement over the past 12 months as they have all been less than equal to the ’06 month to month comparison
• Gives me further positive indication that we are reaching the bottom of this market cycle
• The pending to active in Bonita-Estero is only 3% (very bad) The Naples market shows 3.5% (no better)
• New listings on the market in May - for Bonita-Estero - compared to the number of properties pending, for the same period, is 30%. Not great but better.
•   New listings on the market in May - for Naples - compared to the number of properties pending, for the same period, is also 30%.  Amazing that both would be the same – but they are.

What does this tell us?  What I have been saying for a while – it appears we are at the bottom of this cycle.  This summer is the time to take advantage of this market.  If you are buyer – you will not buy at a better time than NOW.  There is no better time to be a buyer than NOW. 

Contact me to discuss this today.

This story just reminds us that CBS and 60 minutes segments have zero credibility with regard to accurate - fair - journalistic - truth.  The next time you are watching any segment of theirs - remember how they distort the truth and categorically refuse to report in any semblance of "fair".

Here are some truths about realtors: 

It is unbelievable that 60 minutes would take - this approach - in this market - at this time.  Am I making a zillion $ like they say? 

1. I, like almost all realtors am losing money every day of my life.  Losing, flushing, not recoverable, gone, lost money.  Get the picture? 
2. This is true in almost every single market in the country. 
3. Most people say they should have kept their money form prior years profits. Easy to say - hard to do.  Unfortunately, most of these profits were invested in real estate for their future and or retirements.  Well, that value has gone to hell in a hand basket too.  And, if they were in a position to have a mortgage on a portion of that investment, in most cases, they are not making enough money to make the mortgage either. 
4. By the way, the national average income for a realtor in '06 was $47,000.  Not exactly a number worthy of this CBS scathing, huh? 
5. What really offends me more is the allegation of making all this money and doing no work.  Now that angers me. 
6. I work very hard for my clients.  I put in endless hours of very diligent work on behalf of my clients or prospective clients.  Almost all that hard work is "on the come" too.  That means I don't get paid unless all this work ends in a closed transaction.
7. They indicated realtors "work 10 hrs on a transaction".  That is just ludicrous.  I work more hours than that after the contract is signed and agreed to by all the parties. 
8. I wonder how they factored in the dozens of hours spent with prospects that do nothing - or do it with someone else and you have spent all that time and money for nothing. 
9. I wonder how they factor in the costs of  doing business - the advertising costs - the costs of licensure and retention, etc.?

Let me give you some insight into a transaction that I just completed.  1st of all, I was the listing agent. 

• After months of marketing, I had spent thousands of $ to market this property.  
• The seller accepts an offer that is approx. 10% below what he paid for the property. 
• To get all the parties to agree, I reduced my listing commission from 3% to 2%. 
• I had to pay a referral fee of 25% and 
• A broker or agency fee of 25%. 
• Do the math, I made 1% (gross) on the transaction and had all the labor and marketing costs to take out of that 1%. 
• Yeah, this is a get rich quick deal isn't it? 
• Bottom line:  I didn't make a damn dime on that property.  Bad news is: I am not incompetent - this happens more and more frequently in this market.

I just gave up on two listings that I have been marketing for 6 months.  I have spent thousands of dollars on marketing these properties and they won't sell.  I am not sure as to the why but I know I can't sell them.  I have invested six months, a lot of sweat and lot of money in these. I must walk away with nothing.  I feel terrible for the seller too.  I have done everything I know how to do and the seller has done most of the things necessary to market the properties.  That includes reducing the prices to a level where the seller would be in a loss position if they were to sell.  Yeah, this is a get rich quick scheme, isn't it?

One more topic needs to be addressed.  That is the part about the discount real estate broker and or the internet discount broker.  The bottom line to that is best explained by real life examples.  I recently had a transaction with one of these "discounters". 

• Their representation to the client was so poor that their client didn't even know when they (by law) had to vacate the property and;
• What procedure needed to be followed on their part. 
• Yeah, they didn't pay them as much as they "might" have paid a real full service professional.  And;
• They got a lot less value for their money invested.  That's the bottom line. 
• 38 minutes (there must be 22 min. of advertising) acts like people don't need professional representation in these transactions.  They act like it is just a drop dead easy task. 
• Ask my clients if I am worth my money and then some.  I will gladly give you their phone #'s or email address on request. 

Surely this will provoke some comments.....

The Bella Terra residential community east on Corkscrew Road in Estero wants to offer affordable apartments for people who work in the immediate area.  These would be built at the end of the proposed shopping center area on the SW corner of Corkscrew Rd. and Bella Terra Blvd. (just before the entrance on Corkscrew).
The developers plan to build -

• 86,000 sq. ft. of retail shops;
• 18,000 sq. ft. of offices and;
• 30,000 sq. ft. of apartments. 
• The intent is to make them as affordable as possible and cap rents at $840/mo. max. for a 2 bdr. apartment.
• Personally - I think this is a good idea. 
• You think this won't work? 
• Take a look at Rapallo and the Residences at Coconut Point.  I know it isn't exactly the same but - mixed use - similar - in and around shopping - on Corkscrew Rd. -
• These tenants will also have access to the amenities and clubhouse. 

Too expensive for the location and value?  Yeah, it all is.  Here is something for you to ponder -  Their proposal is 875 sq. ft., 2 bdr. for $840. / mo.  My younger daughter lives in St. Louis, Mo. (just E. of Forest Park) - she has a 1 bdr., 700 sq. ft. apartment and pays just almost exactly that amount.

Now what do you think about this proposal?

The MLS numbers shown below represent "pending" and "closed" transactions for the month of May then compare them to the complete month of May for the prior 3 years.

Bonita Springs - Estero

Pending - May         Sold - May           Sold - May (Estero only)

'07 - 75                     '07 - 59                   (16)

'06 – 123                   '06 – 144                (39)

'05 – 254                   '05 – 309                (71)

'04 – 243                   '04 – 204                (37)

The first half of the month is most curious.  The pending numbers are beating a year ago.  In an earlier blog, I commented that April pending beat '06 by so much that May sold or closed sales would look very positive compared to the prior year.  Where are they?  The April pending numbers far exceeded '06 (which become May closed).  Now May pending appears to be ahead of '06, by a large percentage.  If the current results were to carry 2 more weeks, we would have a May pending increase of about 25% over one year ago.  Let's see if the closings catch up the last two weeks (to where they should be).  If that happens, we have the 1st positive news in this market in the last two years.  Will we see that?  Are we around a turn here?  Stay tuned.......  

Naples  W. of I-75

'07 - 185                     '07 - 186

'06 - 346                     '06 - 376

'05 - 773                     '05 - 776

'04 -  783                    '04 - 790

At this pace, Naples will beat May '06.  If the next 2 weeks are equal to the 1st two weeks, the pending market would be ahead of '06 by 10%.  That bodes well for the summer months as it will obviously continue the closings for June to finish ahead of the prior years.  If this holds, it would be the most positive market indicator in the past 2 years.  Again, like the Bonita-Estero market info. above, the closings must catch up in the last two weeks of the month.  Time will tell.........

Will this hold?  Is it the indicator it appears to be?  What about the other negatives?

Your thoughts? 

With all the focus on Coconut Point mall and up the road at Gulf Coast Town Center, smaller development projects are making progress in Estero too.  The growth in this small area is phenomenal.  Understand that Coconut Pt. has 1.4 M sq. ft. under air and more to be built while Gulf Coast is excess 800k built and still building and Miromar Outlets is just finishing phase 5, moving it to 140 stores!  Below is a summary of current additional commercial growth on highway 41, Corkscrew Rd., Three Oaks, etc. 

• J.E.D. Development's commercial center on 33 acres at the NW corner of U.S. 41 and Coconut Road will include:  CVS pharmacy, Orion Bank and Florida Community Bank being 3 of 8 out parcels around a 90,000-square-foot central shopping area. A Spring Hill Suites 150 room hotel will also be built at this location. Other different anchors are being discussed. The rest of the area will be shops and restaurants. Buildings will start going up in approx. 6 months.
• W. of 41 just N. of Coconut Rd. will be a 30,000 sq. ft. retail and office complex. Indications are for 18k feet of retail and 12k feet of office space. Early indications have tenants including Panda Express restaurant. Other expected chain tenants are anticipated. This is expected for completion in spring 2008.
• Just N of Williams Rd. at 41, buildings are going up on out parcels at "Paradise Shoppes of Estero". This will include a 29,000-square foot strip center plus Walgreens to open in July, and construction to begin soon on Bank of America and a Mobil convenience store. According to the developer others including Rooms-To-Go will be locating here.
• The road is completed for Coconut Point's South Village, E. of 41 and S. of Coconut Rd.  That is Mirasol a 224 multi family condo project. Also, cleared areas include room for Murano, a 55-plus community and a 25,000-sq. ft. Shoppes of Coconut Point on 41 north of Pelican Colony Boulevard.
• Estero Ridge, a 42,000 sq. ft. retail center at the SE corner of 41 and Estero Parkway. Tenants are unknown to me at this time.
• On the E. end of Estero Parkway, we will have, Tuscany Park open in the fall and winter of 2008. This will have 220k sq. ft. of commercial/ retail space. There are also 8 out parcels, initially tenants include a convenience store, 2 banks and the 24,000 sq. ft. Shoppes at Tuscany Park (hope to have a grocery store). This project will house 6 or more restaurants circling a large lake with waterside dining.
• Along Corkscrew Road, the Estero Medical Center is under construction just west of Three Oaks Parkway.  The Estero Emergency Care area is completed just E. of Three Oaks on the N. side of Corkscrew. 
• Estero Bay Chevrolet is also under construction at Corkscrew and I-75. The new dealership location is expected to be open by Nov. 1, 2007.
• Regions Bank in Estero Town Commons, in front of Lowe's is out of the ground and anticipated to be open by late fall ‘07.
• Construction continues toward completion of the project on the S. side of Corkscrew Rd. between River Ranch and Sandy Lane.  That area continues to grow as well as the new construction project on the N. side of Corkscrew in the same area between Estates of Estero River and Corkscrew.  Ultimately, that area will be all commercial retail and office space.

What do you think?  Is Estero truly the center of growth in SW Florida?

What is the single biggest waste of money in marketing a home/property?

That's simple.... print advertising - most specifically - newspaper....

That cost is almost always borne by the agent - from their potential money.  I know the property owner wants the ads and wants to see the ads but honestly, it is a major waste of money.  Just as a thought......  In almost all cases, the actual agent pays 100% of that cost - not the agency/broker.  With that now out for air - I know more and more listing agents that refuse to do newspaper advertising and stipulate as much in their listing presentation.

I feel the same way.  A 1/8 page ad in either local paper will cost about $500. per day.  How many days do you want to run that ad - in this market?  There are many many more cost effective ways to spend that money.

Give me your thoughts on best marketing techniques. 

This is your market conditions update for the 1st 10 days of May.  How is it doing now that season is over?  How are we doing as the market makes that change?

It does actually look like the market may be stabilizing......  For ex:

1. There are actually about 300 less homes for sale in Naples than a month ago.
2. Naples - 1st qtr. '07 closed sales were down from '06 to 939 from 1250
3. Lee County - there were 24,600 total homes for sale....
4. Both counties have approx. a 3 yr. supply on the market.
5. Realtors are doing some incredible things to market high end properties like:

• 1,500 private invitations sent all over the country to an open house with champaign - chocolate fountains - dinner theatre actors performing - diamond jewelers displaying with models at the property - chefs with full meals, etc.....
• Sellers have offered everything from a Jaguar in the garage to paying one year assocation fees to one year of proeprty taxes
• Odd and unpredictable is the best way to describe the past 5 months
• The high end market continues to move better than the mid price range
• Current monitoring of the 1st 10 days of May mls activity would project out about equal to one year ago. 

 These numbers for '07 are for the 1st 10 days as prior years are for the complete month

Bonita Springs - Estero

Pending - May         Sold - May           (Estero)

'07 - 60                     '07 - 48                   (12)

'06 – 123                   '06 – 144                (39)

'05 – 254                   '05 – 309                (71)

'04 – 243                   '04 – 204                (37)

Naples  W. of I-75

'07 - 150                     '07 - 150

'06 - 346                     '06 - 376

'05 - 773                     '05 - 776

'04 -  783                    '04 - 790

This pace for the entire month would "blow away" '06 and indicate that we have bottomed out and are seeing increasing transactions activity.  Is it right?  Depends on the next 3 weeks of results...... Stay tuned.....

What are you doing about your property insurance?  Please post your thoughts and comments.....This is one of the 3 items killing the local real estate market.

I am absolutely incensed and am working diligently toward a substantial improvement.  Notice, I said improvement.  I can't cure this alone.

I am going to develop an independent insurance agency that has access to:

• the best markets in FL (not incl. the 3 big captives-that are canceling and abusing everyone) with;
• companies writing the best coverages (like Chubb luxury home program)with;
• the most competitive rates and coverages... 

1. Would that be a good thing, in your opinion? 
2. Would you let this agency quote your coverages?
3. if the coverages were at least as good and;
4. the rates would consistently beat the rates being provided to most of us by the currently known dominant players?
5. Would you want to place your business with that agency?
6. I will only do this if I know we can provide OUTSTANDING SERVICE

I am working on finalizing all the company appointments for this. Due to prior relationships and prior experience, I can establish an agency - here - that will, in fact, be able to do the things I have listed above. 

Do you think it can be established in this area and be worthwhile?

The data included here is at least interesting if not close to amazing and contradictory to all that supposedly know (including yours truly).  This would indicate that we are off the bottom of this market.  This activity level is actually surprising (even to me).  Now, the overriding questions are:

	Current		Closed	Pending
Lee Co.	Active		April	April
Cape Coral	6926		223	490
Estero	1381		50	83
BonitaSprings	3134		116	169
Ft. Myers	7725		287	492
Ft Myers Beach	955		22	71
Lehigh	3137		72	240
N. Ft. Myer	1062		42	105
Sanibel	339		20	20
	24,659		832	1,670
Collier Co.
Naples	11,878		413	531

1. Was this just an aborition that occurred in the month of April due to maximum activity levels that occur in the last month of "season"? 
2. Or, is this activity an indicator that buyers are back in this market.  If this is correct, buyers have decided to take advantage of current pricing structures.
3. The bad news is - we still have 25,000 listings active in this SW FL market and that is not diminished from Jan. 1, 2007.

Remember, this data is from the combined MLS.  This data does not include

• transaction activity from developer new home sales and
• for sale by owner transactions. 

This is pretty amazing data.  How long has it been since we have had 1,670 pending properties in Lee County?

Don't get me wrong.  This is one - and only one - indicator for this market.  It is the most positive one I have seen in two years.  The negative indicator also shown in these stats is that active listings continues to hover around the 25k mark.  This have built up over the past two years and is now staying there.  Obviously, this number must reduce significantly for recovery to occur.

My personal opinion: it will be rough and rocky travelin' from Cinco de Mayo (see photo at right) to Thanksgiving.  Stay tuned.....   what do you think?

The number one item on the agenda of the FL Legislature was the state property tax issue and they choked again.  Typically, politically, they choked.  The legislature will have a special session in mid-June to address this hot issue.  The Governor made a statement that he certainly believed we could see real relief come to fruition yet this year.  Don't hold your breath.

Yes, it is tough.  A very daunting task of righting the ship of this state was ahead of this legislature and this session.  They have deferred their real task for a few months while their aides try to find politically correct ways to make the voters believe they are standing up to the task.  What we have is

• a state that is fiscally sound with
• an economic engine that built the state coffers to an incredibly bulging $5+Billion dollars surplus
• that is currently grinding to an absolute halt from
• the weight of an unfair -unjust - dysfunctional property tax system
• that - along with 2 other items - will disintegrate this states fiscal accountability very quickly

1. This legislature must eventually pass real property tax reform
2. People cannot afford to continue to live here.
3. The entire state of FL's economy hangs in the balance
4. This reform must either eliminate property tax (House version) and replace it with sales tax or;
5. dramatically reduce it - and freeze it - with real substance in it
6. plus provide tax base portability with a county to allow people to move or move up and carry their individual tax base with them
7. Plus give homestead to permanent residents that is substantive
8. plus give business a reason to stay in business w/ "homestead" style treatment

One of the other two issues is property insurance.  The legislature did take a couple of positive steps by freezing citizen (the state run insurer) rates again and "tweaking" the rate filing process for insurance companies.  These changes will make rate increases a little more difficult.  That doesn't exactly save the day.  What we must have is some insurers that are willing to do the ratin gcorrectly and stop gouging the public just because they can.  Stay tuned on this topic....

What do you think?

This is a statistical look at the "state of the business" on 5/1/07.  These stats are telling us where we stand as we begin the "off season".

MLS records: Active residential property listings by city:

• Bonita Springs: 3,128 
• Estero: 1,390 
• Ft. Myers: 7,673 
• Lehigh Acres: 3011
• Naples: 11,833

• Lehigh Acres vacant residential lots: 6,350

Number of new listings added in April compared to the 3 yr. avg.

Bonita Springs - Estero combined: 488     3 yr. avg.: 433

Naples: 1,476         3 yr. avg.: 1,459

This doesn't indicate any real appreciable reduction in listings being added to the mls.  Media reports recently indicate different information.  For example, reports concerning number of residents occupying or moving into properties indicate a large inventory reduction.  That report did not account for the number of those "move ins" as tenants.  It is a very large percentage.  The number of transactions are not enough to exceed the number of new listings added.  That is the only way to reduce inventory and that is the only way to find the bottom of the market.......

That's at least interesting.  According to the news releases, there is renewed interest in their attempt to find solutions to property tax woes.

Let's think about it.  The following are "their" numbers:

• The current legislative proposals would allow slot machine type gaming in all current horse race, jai alai and dog tracks around the state.  That would include the facility in Bonita Springs (Naples-Ft. Myers Greyhound).  This would be a tremendous boon to the local economy and the local facility in Bonita Springs. 
• Their current estimates indicate this would add about $920M to the state education trust fund and;
• another $87M to the general revenue in the form of tax collected from this money.
• Currently this would only encompass about 9 facilities in the state with one of the nine in Lee County.

This is something of a "drop in the bucket" but a large "drop".  What is your opinion?  Let me know

Let's evaluate the sales results (as recorded on the mls) for Bonita Springs and Estero. 

What does this tell us?  This is a good barometer month to use as April is historically the busiest "transactions" month in this market.

• Overall, these results are very positive for the outlook of the market. 
• It indicates less volatility than we thought. 
• It indicates more activity than we have seen for 2 years.
• This "pending" number will create May "closings" numbers that will exceed prior years too.
• The sold numbers are based on March activity. This was previously reported as very poor.  This is why these April results are so positive. 
• We exceeded April '06 by about 25%.
• We exceeded last month by 12%.
• We won't be exceeding '05 for a long long time.
• We certainly are not at '04 activity levels either.

Does this mean the summer months will be more active than anticipated?

Does this mean the bottom has been reached?

Or will the summer months bring activity doldrums and further price retreats?

What are your opinions and what other comparisons would you like to see?