SW FL Real Estate

as per the Sunshine MLS - the Sept. sales activity reports as:

   Bonita Springs - Estero

Pending - Sept         Sold - Sept           (Estero only) pending

'07 -  74                     '07 -  51                 (35)

'06 – 74                      '06 -  67                (17)

'05 – 159                    '05 - 166                (38)

'04 – 194                    '04 - 161                (52)

Naples  W. of I-75  N of Davis Blvd.

'07 - 141                     '07 - 120

'06 - 135                     '06 - 191

'05 - 341                     '05 - 389

'04 - 384                     '04 - 351

What does all this mean?  Aug. pending was down so far that Sept. closings had to be down - and they are.... Sept. pending are encouraging though.....Interesting that Bonita-Estero are exactly identical in number to one year ago.....

Remember, these are transactions as reported thru the mls (involving a realtor in the transaction).

What does it all tell you?

The guru economists really helped us all last week with their local (SW FL)prognostication that we are facing 2 more years of this down cycle.  Of course, if they knew things like that – they would be picking stocks and being zillionares not state employed economists, right?  Here are some random thoughts.....

1. The # of building permits issued in September was very encouraging – at something like 175, that is down to 1981 levels (wonder what all those county employees do to occupy themselves) and that bodes well for the “find a bottom to this cycle” prospects.
2. The number of real estate transactions are about equal to the same time period of 2000.  That doesn’t bode well for clearing inventory.  And, 1200 foreclosures in the month of September – in Lee county – will continue to drive down prices and drive up listing numbers.
3. A really good discussion, if I do say so myself, about property insurance and that market relating to property owners and property insurance..
4. It’s almost season – we are seeing auto carriers delivering cars in communities now.  That’s a lot like the signs of the swallows returning…..  they will return…. the incredibly warm weather in the upper Midwest and Northeast may delay the return of some but return they will. 

What will the market do? 

• We will have more activity – just like always - we won’t see as much as prior years –
• We will continue to see prices suppress and;
• Properties priced in the lower 20% of the comparable market will be the ones that move – Properties don’t always move – for that reason – (as an ex; I saw a property priced 25% lower than any other comparable property in the community and the listing was expiring.  Certain communities and certain home types just aren’t moving irregardless).
• And I didn’t even charge you for reading this – like the economists charge you to listen to them.  You just got a great deal today….
• Your thoughts are?

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The Lee County foreclosure numbers for Sept. are out.  They are at about 1220 for the month. August set the modern record at 1232.  We are right at that level again.  The bad news is - homesteaded foreclosures (primary residences) accounted for 395 of that number and single family homes totalled 915.

Some lenders have placed earlier foreclosures back on the market at reduced rates.  As discussed in previous blogs, this will continue to apply downward pressure on the market.  August and September are usually the quietest months in this housing market.  Since September foreclosures were less than August, possibly we are seeing a slowing of the avalanche.  I am scratching for crumbs here.  But, the level of activity always increases from October thru May.

What do you think?  Does this foreclosure activity impact the overall market or is this just another factor in the big picture?

The new "Residences at Coconut Point" - urban condo complex are being completed and closed.  A certain number of these owners are putting these properties on the market.  These properties are priced out - to these initial owners at closing for $400. per sq. ft.  Is there an urban lifestyle market for these properties - on the Coconut Point property - at that price?

As a person that owns an independent insurance agency, I speak on this topic with at least a certain degree of authority.

The "Lee County Crier" (lovingly known as the news paper) headlines recently indicated that one of the largest insurance companies (Allstate) submitted a request for a 42% increase on homeowners insurance and the next headline indicated that insurers were even canceling churches.

Those things may be true but the frustrating part of that story is: there are a number of insurers in this area that genuinely want to write business and are doing so very competitively.  DO NOT buy into the theory that you can't obtain affordable insurance for your home.  For heavens sake, don't let that deter you from being a buyer in the buyers of all buyers market we have.  We have a number of very competitive companies that are very active in the market and are even reducing rates!  We are not the only agency (unfortunately) that has good companies wanting to write good business in SW FL.  Know where to look.

Florida auto insurance is unfortunately another matter.   Nobody seems concerned about their auto insurance because it is competitively priced with many companies.  The FL legislature has just completely shot the state in the foot regarding auto insurance!  Whether you are a proponent or opponent of FL. "pip" or "no fault" auto insurance, the state legislature let any legal requirement for auto insurance lapse!  You are likely thinking - oh yeah, he just said he owned an agency so he is whining.  Oh contraire - we don't write the client that would intentionally drive without insurance.  We do insure those that will be hit by those that don't have insurance though.  That is what upsets me.  Whether this state has "no fault" or not, this state needs mandatory insurance laws.  The legislature will likely take it up and partially correct the errors of their ways in the next 2 weeks.  But, that doesn't solve the situation every driver in this state is facing today.

FL is one of only about 4 states that has "no fault" and the controversy over that is far greater than these little blogs should try to address.  But, we do need to have mandatory auto insurance.  You - as a consumer - are already paying a portion of your insurance to pay for the uninsured driver creating claims (that is the uninsured motorist portion of your premium).  We don't need to increase that exponentially.  That is the cliff notes on what I think.....What do you think?