Here are published national statistics for Jan. '07:
1)"Nationally, housing construction plunged to the lowest level in nearly a decade last month.  Construction of new homes and apartments plunged by 14.3 percent in January, the Commerce Department reported.  The decline pushed activity to the slowest pace since August 1997 with construction in January 37.8 percent below the pace of a year ago.  Economists said the depth of the decline showed that housing was still facing major problems after a five-year boom which ended last year with falling construction and declining sales of both new and existing homes."
2)"Chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said that builders were slashing sales prices and offering other incentives."
3)"The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes fell in 40 states in the fourth quarter of 2006 and home prices dropped in 49 percent of the metropolitan areas surveyed, the widest price decline in the history of the Realtors' survey."
4)"The chief economist at Moody's, said he looked for prices to continue to fall. This market will not find a bottom until this inventory is worked off and the only way for that to occur is through further price declines."
Are there any other confirming entities needed to firm up this postion?  I had the Fed report.  Maybe I should have put it in too.  It said.... well, you know what it said......
Bottom line: 
Inventory is at unprecedented levels in this market. 
The only method for that to change is for sellers to continue to drop prices until such time that a lowered price will entice a buyer to act. 
This market cannot become active until prices further reduce from their current levels.  And;
This market cannot experience a "turn around" until this inventory is absorbed and; That will be a long... long... long... time from now.

The housing "slam" in the SW Florida market has been greatly exaserbated by the developers.  This is primarily the publicly held companies that have been the "final nail" in the resale market.  Interesting headlines on their results:

WCI reports a $64.6M Loss for last quarter of '06 ('07 will be worse).  276 customers canceled (walk aways) home contracts and the company walked away from land purchase agreements (options) they had made commitments on.  Havnanian (parent of First Homes) took a $90M charge and the list goes on and on.

These entities have been attracting all (up to 70% of all transactions) the buyers in this area.  Will they continue to offer even more incentives?  Probably not.  Will they back off?  Probably.... I will keep you posted... 

The "Market Watch" meeting from the SW FL real estate "guru's" was:
infomative and fairly straight forward...... Here are some quotes:
"With 23,000 houses and condos on the market in the county (Lee) and the number rising"....
“Don’t expect the tide to start rising this year,”....
“We all know what the solution is, don’t we? It’s called a price reduction,”
"The number of existing single-family homes on the market increased from 2,906 in January 2005 to 14,480 in January 2007"
“The truth of the matter is if the non-motivated sellers would take their properties off the market, it would do more to motivate the market than anything else that could be done.”
That's pretty much it, isn't it?
Any other idea?  Bottom line - the next 60 days are the most active of the entire year.  Personally, I have seen no difference in activity between now and last October.  That is a really bad "ol' indian sign"
You think otherwise?

Here are some numbers to give you an exact indication of the market situation and conditions here in sw florida.....
These figures are for Lee county only:
The number of existing single family homes showing active on the market today (2/20/07):14,480 (not incl. condo/multi-family).  Compare that number with the same date in 2005: 2,906! 
42 percent of all these homes for sale are not more than 3 years old.
For Collier county only:
The number of existing properties showing active on the market today (2/20/07): 19,047. The MLS has average over 2,300 new listings per month added to the market for the past 12 months.  That's nuts!
The number of transactions on these listings averages between 300-400 per month.  What that tells you is: we have sales equal to about 15% of the new listings (alone).
Pretty straight?

I have been providing all with this "free" advice about a "buyers market" for a really long time. Here is some more "sage advice":
Real estate 101 says: buy when others are selling and verse visa..... not rocket science, huh?
Ask all the current sellers that didn't try to sell in '05 and all the buyers that did buy in '05.
Right now - you can buy at "pre-'05 prices.
If you are a buyer - do so - now!
Why? Because (as I have said previously) you will not hit the bottom of any market and when you think it is on the bottom - it is too late....
THIS IS AN HONEST TO GOODNESS BUYERS MARKET...
Take advantage - if you are a buyer. You will thank me in 3-5 yrs. irregardless of what the market does for the remainder of '07.