SW FL Real Estate

We have passed tax day… again.  Here are some disturbing thoughts…. Questions

We seem to have awakened the sleeping giant in this country… the “I am entitled”

No, you are not entitled and you damn sure are not entitled to mine.

How about these thoughts….. just the news headlines:

In the last few weeks, our President has:

q       backed off his earlier rhetoric about a hard line with N. Korea

q       apologizes to muslim world for actions of Americans

q       gets “cozy” with Iran

q       has a big photo op shaking hands with Chavez

q       thru executive order lifts restrictions on Cuba

q       has a budget in Congress that will pass that puts more debt on the back of Americans that all other presidents, in history,  combined.

q       Makes a speech at Georgetown University and makes them cover up their Catholic religious symbols for his time there

The media is making positive headlines out of things like, “March jobless numbers very positive with 20,000 less jobs lost than prior month”.  What?  Ask the 500,000 people that lost their job in March how much better their life is.

Who was the old time humorist that said, “mankind is the only animal that blushes.  We blush because we have a Congress.  I think it was Mark Twain. 

Home sales are up substantially over a year ago.

2008 finished as the 3^rd highest number of closed sales on record

Home pricing (median) is down 40% from a year ago

It appears we have now lost 10 years of pricing or valuation (based on closed sales)

Inventory numbers are dropping somewhat – we are now “down to” an 18 mo. supply

January sales were 90% from foreclosed and or bank owned properties

If you do comparables for the sales closed, they were in the lower 10% of the pricing

However – you need to understand what sales are driving these numbers. As the national news continues to bludgeon us, Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres are driving these sales numbers with 80% of the foreclosed homes in these areas. These two areas have seen home values drop from about $250k to $100k in 3 yrs. Buyers are grabbing 3/2, 1,750 s.f. homes built in the last 4 yrs. for $100k. This is dominating the numbers you see above.

For example: Looking at what has gone pending to date in February, in Bonita Springs – Estero, that “mystical median” price is $235k. More than double the county average.

The “mystical median” sold price to date in February is $250k. This is a 150% jump over the county median numbers. All things being relative.

Like my daughter once told me, “all things are relative and all your relatives are cold”.

Are there incredible buys here now? Absolutely. If you are a buyer, now is like buying 10 years ago but, getting today’s product.

Will all this stabilize soon? No. Will the stimulus bill help here? No. And, that whole issue is for another writing.

If you check my prior blogs you will find that mid year '08, I believed we had found the bottom.  So much for my credibility!  With that said, what's doin' now as we head into '09?

2,600 foreclosures finalized in December in Lee County alone.  As always, Collier won't publish their data.  That fact continues to destroy the basis or bottom of the market. 

• More properties are selling but they are predominantly the bank REO's or foreclosed properties priced at the low - low end of the pricing scale.
• Some (very few) investors are buying multiple properties at unbelievable low prices to use as rentals.  That is only happening in Northern Lee County.
• I am seeing S.F. homes selling for $250k and homes with direct water access selling for half what they were 2 yrs. ago.
• Short sales and foreclosed properties account for at least 60% of all listings on the market.  As a buyer, know there are unbelievable deals available but they will not necessarily finalize even if purchase agreement is reached.  Lenders have been "dragging" this process out for 3-4 months after contracts are agreed upon and signed.  This time frame may shorten as we have gotten into the new year.
• There are buyer opportunities on pricing like we haven't seen since before the turn of century!  Think about that.....

That's what I think.  What do you think?

At least Chicago doesn’t try to disguise who it really is.  Let’s see….

• The (1^st time voting) American public elected a new president from the “Chicago Machine”.  The most corrupt (morally and ethically) political machine in the country.
• Just one short month ago the nation was in awe of a city park where this new Camelot would begin.  Remember that day?  Somehow my view wasn’t the same.
• Typically, protestors make the national news outside a window factory in Chicago.
• The Tribune Company files for bankruptcy but somehow gets a judge to agree to hold the Cubs outside of the proceedings even though the Cubs are a wholly owned part of that corporation.
• The last Governor of IL., from Chicago, is currently serving a 6.5 yr. sentence in prison
• Oh yes, the current Governor of IL., from Chicago, was arrested on 12/9/08.  Racketeering?  Surely not.  Selling a senate seat isn’t illegal in Chicago. Oddly enough, he is married to the daughter of one of the Chicago machine’s famed “fixers”.  Ironic, isn’t it?
• The new president, Teflon Obama won’t be indicated by the mainstream media as having any relationship with this current Governor.  If you watch the sound bites, Obama talks about several meetings with the Governor in the past couple of months regarding who will be assigned his senatorial seat.  Miraculously, on 12/9 he doesn’t recall even speaking to him in the past few months.
• There were only 38 killings in Chicago, mostly youth gangs, in the past week.
• And, the overall media puts out the message….. “nobody really liked that Governor anyway”….
• I especially like this media quote, “it isn’t like Obama got arrested”…..
• But, this Governor from Chicago is a part of the democrat machine so he was elected (placed would be a more appropriate term) “for” the people of IL.  I might add, he is serving his 2^nd term too.  Give that a thought.
• The possible downside to Teflon Obama is his coronation exposes Chicago to the world for a bit of what it is.  Personally, I have never met anyone that would be surprised by any of this.

 The new motto for IL., "our governors make your license plates for you".

The only view of Chicago I have ever liked is…… the Sears tower in my rear view mirror.